hmmm... now I dont' know if an expression can do this or not but I think the algorithm would be something like this:
1-from the previous frame to the current frame you find the distance the center point of the wheel has moved horizontally. this is a pythagorean theorem calculation using x and z coordinates.
2-that distance divided by the circumference of the wheel gives you the portion of a complete rotation the wheel will turn if it is aligned exactly inthe direction of movement.
3-some formula probably involving a sine function would scale that rotation portion from 0 (the case where the wheel has skidded sideways, causing no rotation at all) to 1 (the case where the wheel is aligned exactly with the direction of movement) based on a comparison of the orientation of the wheel with the actual direction it moved.
4-add the resulting rotation value to the wheel's previous rotation value.
repeat for each new frame.
Of course this would only work on level ground; bumps, hills, potholes would be beyond this simple formula.
I suspect this is all doable in A:M expressions but I dont' know enough about the exact syntax of A:M expressions.
Some interested expression writer may want to try it.